Brexit, federalism and the peace process

Bencyrus Ellorin

The United Kingdom of Great Britain wants to leave the European Union in a historic vote on June 23, 2016.

This development is relevant to the forthcoming plan of the incoming administration to shift to federalism and the stalled final peace process between the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

The referendum last Thursday demonstrates that secession can be pursued peacefully.

I remember a micro-managing chief editor asking me why I prominently used a news story on the historic vote of Scotland to remain with the United Kingdom in a community newspaper’s world news page. I had to laugh silently the naivety of saying that Scotland’s vote in September 2014 was an irrelevant news in the country. At that time, the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro(CAB), the precursor of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) was in final deliberation and one of the models being looked into by the GPH and MILF peace panels was the British model of giving autonomy and options to member states like Scotland and Northern Ireland to secede through referendum.

The British Exit (Brexit) from the European Union shows how stable and mature democracies deal with disputes, differences and conflicts and respect people’s will on issues affecting statehood.

For me, the Brexit was not surprising. It would seem that in the first place, UK was a reluctant member of the EU. Pundits claim the June 23 referendum which showed that 51.7 percent of Britons favors the exit from the EU versus 48.3 percent who wanted otherwise is an assertion of British independence.

The EU was formed after World War II to end bloody wars among European nations.Its first members were France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and The Netherlands. UK joined in 1973 with Denmark and Ireland.

The EU has become more pronounced and felt all over the world in the 1990s with the creation of a single European market. EU then adopted the Euro as its common currency in 1993. Prior to that was the fall of the Berlin Wall which was symbolic of the aspiration to have a borderless Europe. It was also in the 1990s that the Shengen agreement which allowed people to travel around Europe without their passports checked at the borders. Later on, people who travel to Europe can avail of a Shengen Visa from embassies of any EU member state. I got a Shengen visa from the German Embassy in Manila in 2004.

It is however interesting that the UK did not adopt the Euro as its currency and the Shengen system. You can spend your Euro in London, but the cashier will give you the equivalent Sterling Pound as change. To travel to the UK, you need to have a separate UK visa.

Although the referendum result will not automatically remove UK from the EU, it would start what some experts predict to be a messy ‘divorce’ proceedings at the EU headquarters in Brussels. There, complex economic, mostly trade  issues would have to be resolved. Global economy may also be affected as markets remain uncertain over the future of 5th largest economy of the world.

At home in the UK, the June 23 referendum results also showed diversity which would could define the UK federation composed of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in the future. Although it voted to remain with the UK in 2014, 62 percent of the Scottish people wanted to remain with the EU. Would the Scottish people remain comfortable with a newly ‘ïndependent’ UK?

Although, US president Barack Obama was in favor of UK sticking it out with the EU, recent history would show that the UK in terms of foreign policy, politics and even economically is more ‘American’ than European.

Back home, may the British and European models inspire Filipinos to bring to the negotiation table disputes, differences and conflicts. And to eventually resort to the vote any political settlement of these conflicts.

This is more important as the incoming administration of Rodrigo Duterte promises shift to federalism in at least the next two years. Shift to federalism from the current unitary, centralized government would not be a walk in the park. We expect spirited and emotional debate when it comes to power division, territorial issues and wealth sharing, among others. The same could be expected in the stalled GPH -MILF peace process.