Think out of the box

Erick San Juan

WE are now a nation being challenged once more with several issues emanating from the present administration’s policies concerning its “war on drugs” and corruption. The latest word wars among government officials — appointed and elected — created more problems than solutions.

The Filipino people are fed up with such bickerings and endless “he said, she said” rhetoric in the midst of high prices of commodities and utilities that affect the daily life of Juan dela Cruz. Pundits are asking: “Where are the promises pertaining to a better life for every Filipino, especially the poor?” Even middle-class families are slowly inching towards the lower class status.

Are we seeing a repeat of the past administration’s promises that were never fulfilled, particularly, on the supposed positive economic results of foreign investments? Is it still the same “old trickle down effect” or all B.S. and just taking this country for a ride?

News of investments that will bring jobs via “build, build, build” seems to be trapped in the drawing board yet. But some analysts think we are being herded (like a herd of cattle) into a debt trap. Which is which? Are we really moving towards industrialization? Meaning, more jobs — more buying power for the needy and more opportunities for growth?

There seems to be a problem some geopolitical experts are seeing on our relationship with China — economically. More skeptics are saying that we are being pushed towards a debt trap which we are not aware of due to the “friendly ties” that PRRD used with China (read: soft power on the part of China). And on the occasion of the launch of the so-called “One Belt, One Road” operation initiated by China, it was assessed by some geopolitical-economists that we will be used as dumping grounds of manufactured goods from China. Translation: the true economy of China lies on its manufacturing which seems to be overheated and they have to unload these somewhere and it is a win-win solution to recover from their economic downturn.

China is not giving away money or goods to be used in infrastructure via the “Obor” op. There are “soft loans” and maybe some geopolitical maneuverings on the leadership of countries, especially claimants in the contested areas who joined in the Obor.

Of course, data/statistics that are sourced from Chinese-controlled sites are all rosy and about a healthy economy but the big questions is this: Is it the true picture? Or just fake news?

The words of Mehreen Khan: “The true state of China’s economic fortunes remain a mystery to the world. The latest round of official quarterly GDP statistics from Beijing’s National Statistics Bureau show the economy has slowed to its lowest level in 25 years. Quarterly growth is at its lowest rate since the depths of the financial crisis six years ago.

“Yet the government’s estimates have long been dismissed as an accurate barometer of what’s really going on in the Chinese economy.”

“There has been a long history in China of the official GDP data understating true GDP during a boom and overstating it during a slowdown,” wrote Willem Buiter in September, a former Bank of England rate-setter and influential economist at Citi.

Questions over China’s “actual” rate of growth have been thrown into sharp relief after a summer of turmoil in financial markets. Sudden anxiety over a Chinese “hard-landing” left investors dumbstruck. Billions were wiped off global stock indices and authorities were forced to suspend trading to prop up equity prices.

China data-watching has now become the main driver for global economic sentiment.”

I will not dwell into technicalities here. Our country should be more concerned on how President Rody Duterte and his so-called economists handle the crisis once the huge red dragon will hit the bottom, and unfortunately, we will go down with it. Are we prepared? Or some will say, it is better to wage war and fight that outside enemy to save China’s internal crisis. But still, who will be minding the store once it hits us?

Possibly President Duterte can feel the heat this time. Our peso is on a freefall, high prices of commodities was compromised by bird flu hype, infestation, the month long Marawi siege, the shocking control of top Chinese drug lords of our political system and possibly behind terrorism to weaken our nation. That even the Marcoses are even attempting to dupe him of the fool’s gold and stale gold certificates to avert the global class suit the Marcoses will face soon. President Duterte was even advised by some vested interests to consider a revolutionary government which will surely fail in time due to the infighting from within, including his political  partymates. The President should think and act out of the box if he wants to survive this crisis by design.