From non-entity in surveys to frontrunner

By Carolyn O. Arguillas/ Mindanews

WHEN Pulse Asia started its nationwide survey on the May 2016 elections in June 2014, Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, now the presidential frontrunner, was not in the list of 11 potential presidential candidates. In its September 2014 survey, the list was expanded to 15 and Duterte was still a non-entity even as signature campaigns were launched to push him to run for the top post.

In both surveys, Vice President Jejomar Binay topped as the choice of 41 percent in June and 31 percent in September, of registered voters if elections had been held in 2014, followed by Sen. Grace Poe with 12 percent and 10 percent, the then Unterior Secretary Manuel Roxas II with seven percent and 13 percent, and Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago with seven percent and 11 percent.

When Duterte finally made it to the list of 12 in the March 2015 survey,  only 12 percent were going to vote for him. Today, that figure has risen to 34 percent of the registered voters nationwide, according to the April 12-17 survey conducted by Pulse Asia for ABS-CBN.

From 12 percent nationwide in March 2015, Duterte gained three percentage points in the May survey with 15 percent and gained another one percentage point by September. At that time, Duterte was still vascillating on his decision to run for President, even filing his certificate of candidacy (COC) for mayor in Oct. 15, his supporters awaiting him at the Commission on Elections in Manila on the last day of filing of COCs Oct. 16.

He did not show up by 5 pm, the deadline for filing COCs. But at 4:59 pm or one minute before the deadline, Martin Dino of the Partido Demokratikong Pilipino-Laban ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) filed his COC for President, a move apparently made by the party to give Duterte a chance to change his mind.

Frustrated supporters said they would wait for Dec. 10 as the law allowed for substitution of candidates until that day. Dino withdrew his candidacy a few weeks later.

Duterte finally withdrew his COC for mayor while his lawyer in Manila filed his COC for President on Nov. 27, a day after the results of a Pulse Asia survey on Nov. 11 and 12 in the National Capital Region commissioned by a Davao City-based businessman, showed him as the top choice of 34 percent of the registered voters.

In the Dec. 4-11 nationwide survey, held days after his controversial cursing of the Pope at his formal proclamation as PDP-Laban standard bearer, Duterte lost seven percentage points in the NCR (from 34 percent to 27 percent) but overall he was the choice of 23 percent of the voters,  landing second to Binay’s 33 percent,  but statistically tied with Poe’s 21 percent, followed by Roxas’ 17 percent and Santiago’s four percent.

In the January 2016 survey, Duterte lost three percentage points (23 percent to 20 percent).

But staring February, Duterte was gaining more voters to his side, from 21 percent choosing him, to 24 percent in the March 1 to 6 survey, surging to 30 percent in the March 29 to April 3 survey, then 32 percent  in the April 5-10 survey and  34 percent in the April 12-17 survey.

Now the frontrunner, Duterte has widened his lead by 12 percentage points with 34 percent of the voters nationwide choosing him if elections were held today, compared with 22 percent for Poe in the Pulse Asia Survey for ABS-CBN on April 12 to 17, the survey ending just as the outrage over his controversial rape remarks was beginning.

The survey results, released by Pulse Asia on Sunday morning, showed Binay and Roxas were statistically tied at 19 percent and 18 percent, respectively, while Santiago got only two percent.

Duterte gained two percentage points more from the previous Pulse Asia survey for ABS-CBN conducted on  April 5 to 10 and released on April 19,  from 32 percent to 34 percent  in this latest survey and widened his lead against Poe from seven percentage points in the previous survey to 12 in this latest survey.

Nationwide, only Duterte and Santiago gained percentage points from the previous survey to the April 12 to 17 survey – Duterte with two percentage points (32 percent to 34 percent)  and Santiago with one percentage point (1% to 2%).

Poe and Binay lost several percentage points (3 percentage points for Poe from 25 percent to 22 percent) and Binay 1 percentage point  from 20 percent to 19 percent while Roxas was steady at 18 percent.

Duterte lost one percentage point in the Visayas (29 percent to 28 percent), was steady in the Balance of Luzon at 20 percent, but gained in all other categories: 11 percentage points more in the NCR, from 32 percent in the previous survey to 43 percent;  four percentage points more in Mindanao, from 57 percent to 61 percent; 10 percentage points more in socio-economic classes ABC from 37 percent to 47 percent; and one percentage point more in Class D from 32 percent to 33 percent; and three percentage points from 31 percent 34 percent in Class E.

In the NCR, Duterte topped with 43 percent,  almost double Poe’s 22 percent,  more than twice Binay’s 19 percent and over four times more than Roxas’ 11 percent.

In the Balance of Luzon, where Duterte is weakest, Poe leads with 30 percent followed by Binay’s 26 percent , Duterte’s 20 percent, Roxas’ 14 percent and Santiago’s two percent.

In the Visayas, Roxas leads with 34 percent followed by Duterte’s 28 percent,  Poe’s 20 percent, Binay’s 15 percent and Santiago’s one percent.  Roxas, Santiago and Poe hail from the Visayas. Duterte was born in Maasin, Leyte in the Visayas but his family migrated to Mindanao when he was six.

In Mindanao, where Duterte’s widest lead is,  six out of 10 Mindanawons are voting for him, based on the survey results of 61 percent against Roxas’ 17 percent, Poe’s 10 percent, Binay’s eight percent and Santiago’s one percent.

Duterte also leads in all  socio-economic classes. In Class ABC, Duterte’s lead is more than thrice his rivals – 47 percent followed by the three who are statistically tied — Binay and Roxas with 15 percent each, and Poe with 14 percent — and Santiago with three percent.

In Class D, he leads with 33 percent, 10 percentage points more than Poe’s 23 percent. Binay got 20 percent, Roxas  18 percent and Santiago two percent.

In Class E, Duterte again leads with 34 percent or 11 percentage points more than Poe’s 23 percent, Roxas’ 22 percent, Binay’s 17 percent and Santiago’s one percent.

Political analysts said Duterte’s rape remarks could affect his lead in the next survey. The Pulse Asia Survey, however, ended April 17 just as the video clip on the rape joke had gone viral.

The next surveys after April 17 will determine if his remarks did affect his ratings. Another survey the public is looking forward to is after the last presidential debate.  (carolyn o. arguillas/ mindanews)