XAVIER University-Ateneo de Cagayan’s Kinaadman: University Research Office (Kuro) yesterday released the results of its second and final election survey that showed reelectionist Mayor Oscar Moreno heading for a big win in Monday’s elections.
Results of the latest the survey show Moreno of PDP-Laban still in a clear lead over all other mayoral candidates, the university’s research office said.
In the survey, conducted among 1,000 (sample size) registered voters in Cagayan de Oro City from April 27 to May 1, Moreno has a voter preference of 60.3 percent and remains in the topmost statistical ranking.
Behind in second place is Jose Gabriel La Viña of Padayon Pilipino with a voter preference of 21.3 percent.
Independent contenders Felix Borres stand at 0.6 percent while Ben Contreras at 0.0 percent.
Undecided voters accounted for 17.3 percent while 0.5 percent had no response. The margin of error is at +3.0 percentage points with 95 percent confidence level.
Moreno remains the favored candidate in both districts with 59.8 percent of voter preference in District 1 and 60.7 percent in District 2.
La Viña got the second highest share of voter preference in District 1 with 18.4 percent and 23.9 percent in District 2.
Borres and Tiu got less than one percent support of the registered voters each in both districts.
The undecided voters were at 20.9 percent in District 1 and 14.0 percent in District 2.
Comparing the two Kuro surveys, Moreno garnered 61.5 percent in the overall share of the voters’ preference in the first survey while in the second one, he got 60.3 percent, a difference of 1.2 percentage points.
La Viña had 16.0 percent in the first survey then up with 5.3 percentage points, at 21.3 percent in the latest one.
Borres and Tiu got less than one percent support of the registered voters each in both surveys. The number of undecided voters dropped from 21.4 percent to 17.3 percent as the election day approaches.
Voters’ preference for vice mayor places Moreno’s running mate, Vice Mayor Raineir Joaquin Uy (PDP-Laban) still in lead with 59.3 percent, followed by former mayor Vicente Emano (Padayon Pilipino) with 24.8 percent. Emano died around midnight.
Undecided voters accounted for 15.2 percent while 0.7 percent had no response. The margin of error is at +3.0 percentage points with 95 percent confidence level.
According to districts, Uy has the support of 62.8 percent of registered voters in District 1 and 56.2 percent in District 2 while Emano had the nod of 19.2 percent of District 1 voters and 29.8 percent in District 2. The numbers of undecided voters were at 17.5 percent and 13.1 percent in the two districts, respectively.
Uy got 55.0 percent of the voters’ preference in the first poll and 59.3 percent in the second one, up with 4.3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Emano rose from 23.6 percent to 24.8 percent in the latest survey. As in the mayoral race, the undecided voters for the vice-mayoral contest also decreased from 21.3 percent to 15.2 percent.
In District 1, reelecvtionist Rep. Rolando Uy of PDP-Laban still dominates the congressional race with a voter preference of 65.8 percent, followed by former vice mayor Caesar Ian Acenas of Padayon Pilipino with 15.4 percent and lawyer Gil Banaag of Partido Federal ng Pilipinas with 2.7 percent. Undecided voters were at 15.0 percent. The margin of error is at + 4.3 percentage points with 95 percent confidence level.
Uy went from 66.1 percent in the first survey to 65.8 percent in the second one, while Acenas got 16.4 percent and 15.4 percent in the two polls, respectively. Banaag went from 1.9 percent of voters’ preference to 2.7 percent.
Statistically, there is no significant change in the differences between the results of first and second surveys as regards the three candidates.
In District 2, former congressman Rufus Rodriguez of the Centrist Democratic Party (CDP) has the support of 57.3 percent of the registered voters.
Trailing behind Rodriguez are Councilor Alam Lim of PDP-Laban with 33.0 percent and Roger Villazorda of PFP with 0.8%. Only 8.7% of the voters remain undecided while 0.2 percent has no response as to their preference for a congressman. The margin of error is at + 4.2 percentage points with 95 percent confidence level.
Between the first and second polls, Rodriguez and Villazorda had no statistically significant change in their results. However, as the number of undecided voters dropped from 15.9 percent to 8.7 percent, preferences for Lim increased significantly from 19.4 percent to 33.0 percent. (Source: XU Communications Office)