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Batas Mauricio

IN the event that no elections will be held on May 9, 2016 and no new president is elected by June 30, 2016, what are we to expect? The answer is, there will be no one who is legally authorized to lead the country. This possibility gives rise to the scary scenario of a power grab, either by President Aquino himself, or by individuals or groups which have the force or the  capacity to assert themselves as our new leaders.

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Indeed, if there is no election in May for whatever reason, President Aquino, Vice President Jejomar Binay, Senate President Frank Drilon, and House Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. could no longer continue in their respective positions, because their terms shall have already expired by June 30, 2016 and there is no right for anyone of them to any hold-over term, according to the 1987 Constitution.

Consequently, since Binay, Drilon, and Belmonte, could no longer discharge the duties and responsibilities of their respective positions after June 30, 2016, their right to succeed President Aquino by virtue of the Constitutional rule on succession would no longer be available, too.

What is also clear is that, since the Senate by that time will only have 12 senators, it will not have the required quorum to even elect a new Senate president, who could have the capacity to be installed as an acting president. Section 16 (2) Art. VI of the Constitution, after all, requires the majority of all 24 senators (which is 12 plus one) to do any business, such as electing a new Senate president.

There would therefore be a clear leadership vacuum if no elections would be held on May 09, 2016. Unfortunately, the 1987 Constitution failed to clearly provide for such a scenario. There is, as law students put it, a “lacuna legis”, or a gap in the law which even the present Constitution cannot effectively address, which would thereby pave the way for an extra-Constitutional solution.

What could this extra-Constitutional solution be? It could be a “revolution from the center”, or, in short, a power-grab by those who are already in power, like President Aquino. This could be accomplished by the abrogation or setting aside, or the dismantling, if you will, of the Constitution which his very own mother, Cory, enacted in 1987, after grabbing power from President Marcos.

When we view what’s happening now from this perspective, it will become very clear that the announcements by the Commission on Elections and Smartmatic Philippines, Inc. to the effect that the electoral exercise in May 2016 may not happen at all would appear to be a part of a grand design to really derail the upcoming polls.

The intention is clear: to prevent the elections from happening in May, so that President Aquino can stay on as president for as long as he desires.

The temptation to hold on to power after June 30, 2016 is just too great for Aquino and his cohorts, what with the many criminal, civil, and administrative cases that had already been lined up to be filed against him after that date, which even include plunder and other heinous crimes cases that could land him in jail for a big period of time.

It would appear that the worst fears we aired more than two years ago already is now slowly coming true: there will be no elections in May 2016 to elect a new president of our country, and, instead, President Aquino will continue governing us, for an indefinite period yet.

Veteran Malacanang reporter Vic Somintac and I already warned our people that there were clear indications already even at that time (in 2014) that Aquino and his powerful allies both within the Philippines and abroad, are maneuvering to scuttle the May 2016 elections and have him rule under a revolutionary government that will see the discarding of the 1987 Constitution enacted by his own mother.

Now, the evidence at this point of a “no-election, Noynoy forever” scenario have become quite compelling. The two agencies which should be in the forefront of pushing for the holding of the May 2016 elections, which are the Commission on Elections and Smartmatic, Inc., are now jointly chorusing that the scheduled political exercise is in grave danger of not happening.

We all know, of course, the single biggest motivation on the part of Aquino to cancel the May 2016 elections, and that is his clear incarceration for the many crimes that were committed under his term. To avoid his going to jail after he steps down from power on June 30, 2016, Aquino first strategy was to ensure that his candidate (or his anointed successor) shall win.

Mar Roxas, however, continues to lag in surveys, and even in some results showing he has significant gains in his popularity ratings, a great number of Filipino voters have already written him off as the greatest loser in May. This is the reason why, as a matter of alternative tactic, Aquino has secretly anointed another candidate, Sen. Grace Poe.

Unfortunately, however, Poe’s candidacy remains mired in uncertainty notwithstanding her recent 9-6 victory at the Supreme Court where she was allowed to continue her presidential run. Then, her ratings are even now clearly sliding down, enabling candidates who are non-sympathetic to Aquino to gain more advantage.

Aquino’s problem is that Jejomar Binay continues to be a fairly strong candidate even up to this point where all known methods of throwing black propaganda against him have been employed, largely by Aquino’s subalterns. Surely, if Binay wins, Aquino maybe compelled to face trial and inevitable detention, just like what happened to his two immediate predecessors in Malacanang.

The same thing is true with Rodrigo Duterte and, of course, Miriam Santiago. These two will only be too happy to pursue Aquino’s trial and incarceration, thereby leaving no other option for the outgoing president but to maneuver to prevent such ignominy from happening to him.

The first of these maneuvers is the cancellation of the May 2016 elections, which is now a clear done deal, with the Comelec and Smartmatic both saying that they no longer have the capacity to push through with that elections. Now, what will happen if the election is not held in May? Please read the second part of this column in our next issue, God willing.

E-mail: batasmauricio@yahoo. com

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