Real numbers matter

Uriel C. Quilinguing .

THERE’S something to crow about as far as the police offices in Northern Mindanao region and Cagayan de Oro City are concerned; crime volume in their respective areas of responsibility, for the first six months this year, went down. No doubt crime statistics are indicative of the peace and order situation of areas and the period these were extracted and those at the helm of these law enforcement agencies must be commended.

Five days ago, the Police Regional Office (PRO) 10 posted on its Facebook timeline an infographic, a press release and a half-body photo of Police Brig. Gen. Rafael D. Santiago Jr.’s, PRO 10 regional director. The digitally designed pie-graphs visually indicate the comparative crime volume for January to June of 2019 and that of 2018. Cagayan de Oro City Police Office (Cocpo) also published on its separate Facebook account the office’s accomplishment for the six-month period for both years. Crime volumes for both semestral periods were broken into two: non-index crime and index crime—these were reduced significantly.

Typically, researchers who intend to measure the statistical significance, using a two-tailed test, all they need to do is to set for five percent so that they may either accept or reject a null hypothesis. If we apply this, the comparative data for the first half of 2019 and 2018 which the PRO 10 and Cocpo officially released to the public are statistically significant.

PRO 10 recorded 6,893 incidents of criminal act, both index and non-index crimes, from January to June this year and this was 948 cases or roughly 12 percent lower than the 7,841 that were posted last year’s six-month period.

Index crimes, which are crimes against persons and properties, dropped 22.4 percent from 1,926 in 2018 to this year’s 1,495 for the first semester. These include incidents of physical injury, theft, robbery, carnapping, human trafficking, rape, homicide and murder.

Total cases of non-index crimes, which refer to acts that violate local ordinances and special laws such as drugs and substances, gambling, squatting, logging, construction of structures, traffic, among others, also diminished to 8.74 percent from 5,915 to 5,398 in the first six months this year, compared to the same period in 2018.

Cocpo also had similar downtrend in total crime volume in the first semester this year, compared to the same in 2018: from 2,366 in 2018 to 1,778 this year or a reduction of 588 incidents, a negative 25 percent change.  Index crime cases scaled down from 522 to 389 or a 25.5-percent dip during the six-month 2018-2019 comparative period while a similar trend was also noticeable in non-index crimes—from 1,844 to 1,389 or a minus 25-percent change.

Both PRO 10 and Cocpo attributed the dramatic reductions in crime volumes for the first semester periods of 2018 to 2019 to Oplan Galugad (Scouring) which police operatives intensified during the six-month period, including stationary and mobile checkpoints and relentless campaign against illegal drugs and gambling.    

PRO 10 director Santiago was quoted in a press statement as having conveyed his appreciation and gratitude to all units responsible for the regional office’s crime volume reduction record, likely cognizant of the fact that he assumed the PRO 10 leadership only last May 10 this year while the performance period started in January.

Cagayan de Oro City Police Office director Henry G. Dampal’s case may even be offbeat since he took over the post only last July 3 and obviously the six-month accomplishment which was the subject of the crime volume report was not under his watch.

The declines in criminal incidents must not be attributed solely to Oplan Galugad since the first six months this year was an extraordinary period.

First, it was an election period which, in the case of Cagayan de Oro and Northern Mindanao, was an electoral contest between and among groups allied to a political party in power. Second, the political campaign provided seasonal businesses and sources of livelihood, aside from the house-to-house campaigns and nightly rallies, thus preventing the commission of crimes against properties. And, third, Northern Mindanao as well as the rest of Mindanao has been under Martial Law since May 23, 2017, by virtue of President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s Proclamation No. 216.

Reductions in crime volumes for both index and non-index classifications in Northern Mindanao and in Cagayan de Oro, in the past six months this year, mean the bars have been set high for entire police forces in the region and in the regional capital city, much more for their respective police directors.

And since statistical changes, which are expressed in percentages, have the tendency to keep public blind of realities, regardless of the 25-percent crime volume reductions, index crimes such rape and murder must be pursued relentlessly until the offenders are arrested, charged, convicted and jailed. As indicated in the PRO 10 statement, there were 185 cases of rape and 169 cases of murder from January to June 2019 in Northern Mindanao.  These mean a person was murdered and a girl was raped in a day and this is unacceptable. 

Cocpo’s Dampal and his men are expected to be on their toes, their hands full, as Cagayan de Oro showcases month-long crowd-drawing festive activities and religious observances for her patron, Saint Augustine.

A better performance, for the rest of the year including the Christmas season, than the first half of this year for PRO 10 and Cocpo is all that every citizen’s wish.