By Carolyn O. Arguillas SEN. Grace Poe is on statistical tie with Vice President Jejomar Binay as the voters’ most preferred presidential candidate while Mayor Rodrigo Duterte tied for second place with administration bet Manuel Roxas II, in the latest Pulse Asia survey. The survey was conducted on Feb. 15 to 20, about a week after the campaign period started and ended a day before the first presidential debate in Cagayan de Oro in Feb. 21. Pulse Asia released the results on March 4. In the latest survey, Poe has an overall voter preference of 26% against Binay’s 25% but they are in a statistical tie as the margin of error in the nationwide poll is plus or minus 2%. Duterte and Roxas both moved one percentage more, overall, from January’s 20% to February’s 21% while Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago is the least preferred at 3% from January’s 4%. In the January survey, Poe topped with 30% while voter preference for Binay was 23%. Duterte’s highest percentage increase from January to February was 7%, in the National Capital Region (NCR), from 16% in January to 23% in February. Duterte’s chances improved in the Balance of Luzon, which had him at the bottom, with only 8% in January to 10% in February but he remains the bottom-dweller in voteichest BL, among the four contenders. In the Visayas, where Duterte also posted the least voter preference among the four candidates with only 15% in January, Duterte gained 4% in February but is still at the bottom at 19%, although statistically tied with Binay’s 20%. But while Duterte’s chances improved elsewhere, he lost three percentage points in Mindanao, from 48% in January to 45% in February. Luzon, home to 12 of 15 presidents, has 55.95% of the voting population nationwide, with Visayas and Mindanao accounting for the remaining 44.05%. Records of the Commission on Elections (Comelec) show that as of November 2015, the country’s total voting population is 54,363,844. Of this, Mindanews totaled the votes by island: Luzon has 30,417,790 or 55.95%; Mindanao has 12,629,265 or 23.23% and Visayas has 11,316,789 (20.82%). Of Luzon’s 30.4 million votes, NCR has 6,253,249 registered voters, representing 11.50% of the voters nationwide while the Balance of Luzon accounts for 24,164,541 or 44.45%. The voting population in the Balance of Luzon (44.45%) is higher than the combined voting population of Mindanao and Visayas at 23,946,054 or 44.05%. In the NCR, voters prefer Binay (33% in February from 32% in January), followed by Poe and Duterte who tied at 23%. Poe suffered a 10% decline from 33% in January to 23% in February while Duterte gained seven percentage points from 16% in January to 23% in February. Voter preference for Duterte in the NCR was highest at 34% in November, in a special survey commissioned by Duterte supporters. In that survey, voter preference for Poe was 26%, Binay 22% and Roxas at 11%. Since September last year, voter preference for Roxas in the NCR has consistently been at 11%. Four more surveys had been conducted after September. In the Balance of Luzon, voters prefer Poe (33%), Binay (29%), Roxas (19%) and Duterte remains the bottom-dweller among the four, at 10%. In the Visayas, voter preference is highest for Roxas at 35%, Poe at 24%, Binay at 20% and Duterte at 19%. In Mindanao, voters still prefer Duterte among the four candidates, but his rating dropped from 48% in January to 45% in February. Binay is the next preferred candidate in Mindanao with 21%, up by seven percentage points from January’s 14% while Poe and Roxas tied at 15% in February, Poe, down by one percentage point from 16% in January and Roxas down by six percentage points. In the socio-economic classes, voters belongin to the ABC class are inclined to vote for Roxa and Poe who both got 25% in February. Poe was steady at 25% from January while Roxas gained five percentage points from January’s 20%. But they’re on statistical tie with Duterte whose rating was 24% in both January and February. Binay suffered a seven per cent decline, from 21% in January to 14% in February. Voters in the D class prefer Binay and Poe, both 25% in February, Poe from 32% and Binay from 22%. Twenty-two per cent of the voters prefer Duterte, from 21% in January and Roxas at 21% from 19% in January. Class E or the poorest of the poor, prefers a Binay presidency (31% from 30% in February), over Poe (28% from 26% in January), Roxas (19% from 25%) and Duterte with 18% from 15% in January. Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters, 18 years old and above, with biometrics, the nationwide survey has a ± 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level, Pulse Asia said in its media release on the results of the February survey. (carolyn o. arguillas)