MANOLO FORTICH, Bukidnon — Electricity generation from the Agusan hydroelectric power plant may decline in early 2027 as an expected strong El Niño threatens to reduce the flow of the Agusan River, its only water source. 

To prepare, First Gen Corp. plans to stagger maintenance shutdowns at the 1.6-megawatt (MW) plant starting April 2027 instead of shutting it down for a full 30 days. 

Herson Lacote, head of the Agusan plant at First Gen Bukidnon Power Corp., said the shorter shutdowns will be scheduled during the dry season, when the plant is already expected to generate less electricity. 

“We are 100 percent dependent on the site flow,” Lacote told media representatives on Oct. 2 during a plant tour held as part of a two-day media assembly. 

The river’s flow is expected to decline around October and reach its lowest levels in March and April, Lacote said. 

“We've anticipated that the plant will have less generation and revenue,” he said. “So we take this opportunity to schedule maintenance shutdowns in less time.” 

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in September that a very strong El Niño could emerge between September and December 2026 and persist into the first half of 2027. 

The weather agency said climate models and evaluations indicated that the phenomenon could intensify into a “very strong” event. 

The Agusan plant uses run-of-river technology, meaning it relies directly on the river’s natural flow instead of storing water in a large reservoir. 

“We do not store water. Mostly, whatever water is available from the creek that enters our canal is all we use to generate electricity,” said Fern Tigoy, the plant’s supervising engineer. 

Commissioned in 1957, the 69-year-old plant occupies a 14-hectare property in Barangay Damilag, Manolo Fortich. 

First Gen acquired the plant in 2005 after winning a National Power Corp. bidding process.

Plant officials estimated that the facility can supply electricity to about 15,000 households. Its off-taker is Mindanao Energy Systems Inc. (Minergy), a retail electricity supplier established by Cagayan Electric Power and Light Co. Inc. (Cepalco).