CAGAYAN de Oro City — More Filipino voters expect Vice President Sara Duterte to be convicted than acquitted in her impeachment trial, with 44% anticipating a conviction against 31% who expect her acquittal, a nationwide survey by PUBLiCUS Asia found.
The PAHAYAG Third Quarter 2026 survey, conducted from Oct. 1 to 4 among 1,581 registered voters, showed a 13-percentage-point gap between those expecting conviction and those anticipating acquittal. Another 25% were undecided.
The poll also found sustained public interest in the impeachment proceedings, with 65% of respondents saying they were strongly interested in following the trial.
On the evidence presented by the prosecution, 44% to 46% of respondents considered the evidence and witness testimonies sufficient, while 38% to 40% said more evidence was needed.
Similarly, 45% to 47% said the evidence presented so far had convinced them, compared with 37% to 38% who remained unconvinced.
The findings reflect public opinion, not a determination of Duterte's guilt or the likely outcome of the impeachment trial.
The survey was conducted before the prosecution decided to consolidate its case around allegations of unexplained wealth and undeclared assets.
₱817.87 million in questioned wealth
At the center of the prosecution's remaining case is a financial examination by forensic analyst Atty. Alexander Cabrera, who identified about ₱817.87 million in allegedly unexplained wealth involving Duterte and her husband, lawyer Manases “Mans” Carpio.
Cabrera testified that the amount was a conservative estimate and could reach about ₱1.5 billion under a broader accounting analysis.
His findings drew on financial records, tax documents, corporate filings and Statements of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth (SALNs). The prosecution has also presented financial information obtained from the Anti-Money Laundering Council, the Bureau of Internal Revenue and banking institutions.
The prosecution is using these records to question whether the couple's declared assets and financial transactions are consistent with their reported income and legitimate sources of wealth.
The allegations, however, remain subject to the impeachment court's assessment. The figures cited by the prosecution do not, by themselves, establish that the couple committed wrongdoing.
Prosecution says evidence is sufficient
House lead prosecutor Rep. Gerville Luistro has maintained that the evidence presented is substantial and compelling enough to warrant Duterte's removal from office.
The prosecution's central argument is that the questioned financial transactions and alleged discrepancies in asset declarations may establish constitutional violations and betrayal of public trust.
The impeachment court must assess the evidence and determine whether the prosecution has met the required standard for conviction. Duterte's guilt cannot be inferred from survey results or allegations alone.
The PUBLiCUS Asia poll offers a snapshot of voter expectations as the impeachment proceedings focus on the allegations involving the vice president's wealth.
While more respondents expected conviction than acquittal, the 25% who remained undecided and the substantial share who questioned the sufficiency of the evidence show that public opinion was not unanimous.
