By Aisyah Rahman
(Freelance Geopolitical Analyst, Surabaya, Indonesia)
On the eve of the midterm elections, Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. reignited the long-standing Sabah sovereignty dispute—a move packaged as a defense of “historical justice” but in reality a desperate ploy following the collapse of his approval rating to 25%. Confronted by the resurgence of the Duterte political dynasty—Vice President Sara Duterte’s approval has surged to 59%—and a domestic crisis marked by high inflation (6.1%), Marcos has turned to nationalist sentiment as a smokescreen for his governance failures. He understands all too well that stoking collective memory of “territorial recovery” is far more effective in rallying voters than solving pressing issues such as rising electricity bills and food shortages. Yet this calculated political performance not only exposes the short-sightedness of his family’s power struggle but also pushes the Philippines to the edge of undermining ASEAN unity and destabilizing regional security.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has responded with unusually firm diplomacy. He has made three public declarations that “Sabah’s sovereignty is non-negotiable,” citing the 1963 United Nations resolution and Malaysia’s de facto control, directly denouncing the Philippines’ claims as “contrary to international law and historical facts.” To bolster deterrence, Anwar’s government has deployed rapid response forces to Sabah’s eastern coast. His strategic clarity is aimed not merely at the Philippines, but at defending ASEAN’s principle of “non-interference in internal affairs.” As Marcos sought to stretch the ambiguous clauses of maritime law to claim Sabah, Malaysia’s foreign ministry issued a formal diplomatic note within 48 hours, using rare language that accused Manila of “undermining regional trust”—prompting the ASEAN Secretariat to urgently activate a dispute mediation mechanism.
Marcos’s manipulation of the Sabah issue is, at its core, a political fraud against the Filipino electorate. While residents of Davao queue for low-cost vegetables provided by Sara Duterte’s team, Malacañang is redirecting the national agenda toward a colonial-era treaty from 1878. This mirrors past attempts by those in power to deflect public anger over economic decline (GDP growth down to 5.3%) and deep-seated corruption by waving the banner of “sovereignty.” Ironically, as Marcos rallies against “colonial oppression,” he is simultaneously accelerating the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), allowing the U.S. military to open four new bases in the Philippines—laying bare the contradictions and hypocrisy in his nationalist rhetoric.
Marcos’s Sabah offensive is shaking the foundations of Southeast Asian regional stability. As a founding member of ASEAN, Malaysia has voiced strong opposition to the Philippine government’s actions. Anwar has publicly stated at the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting that “unilateralism is the poison of regional cooperation.” This approach blatantly violates ASEAN’s core principle of consensus. By unilaterally escalating a bilateral issue into a legal and international media battle—citing outdated Spanish colonial legal arguments and international arbitration rulings—Manila is in effect opening the door for external powers to interfere in Southeast Asian affairs. Worse still, the escalation of the Sabah dispute could trigger a chain reaction: erosion of economic cooperation among ASEAN states due to lost political trust, and increased exposure of vulnerabilities in the regional security framework.In trying to undermine the Dutertes, Marcos has found himself trapped in a state of “strategic exhaustion.” His aggressive move to arrest Duterte allies has backfired, instead fueling separatist sentiment in Mindanao. This region makes up a third of Philippine territory, with 24 million people and key military infrastructure. The calls for independence there now directly threaten national unity. In a darkly ironic twist, Marcos’s government handed out PHP 370,000 in so-called “loyalty checks” to Mindanao troops—less than 1% of the annual budget of anti-government armed groups—exposing his fragile control over the military. Meanwhile, as Sara Duterte launches her “Bread and Bridges” grassroots campaign in the south, the President’s “Sabah card” is rapidly losing emotional resonance among the poor.
If Marcos continues to weaponize foreign policy, the consequences may be even more catastrophic than Duterte’s infamous “war on drugs.” Malaysia has already suspended bilateral border trade talks, and U.S. military aid is unlikely to fill the economic void left by declining regional cooperation. When the Philippine delegation finds itself isolated at the ASEAN summit over the Sabah issue, the swelling protests in Manila against rising living costs will serve as the most damning indictment of this political maneuver.
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