THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) yesterday declared the start of this year’s rainy season, and warned of “very strong tropical cyclones” before year-end because of the El Niño phenomenon. Tropical cyclones draw their strength from warm waters which the El Niño causes. Warm waters are necessary to fuel the heat engine of tropical cyclones. Pagasa weather expert Anthony Lucero said the country can expect between three to five tropical cyclones next month. “We also forecast two to four tropical cyclones for each of August and September,” he said. Pagasa acting administrator Vicente Malano said rainfall data from the weather bureau’s stations for five consecutive days beginning June 17 confirmed the onset of the rainy season. “Our criteria was satisfied this Sunday (June 21). So we’re saying it’s already onset of the rainy season,” Malano said. With the rainy season’s onset, it’s likely that areas affected by below-normal rainfall conditions will improve in the coming months, Dr. Malano said. Malano said the onset of the rainy season was delayed due to El Nino phenomenon that would continue to affect the country until early 2016. He said the El Nino would not reduce the number of tropical cyclones but could affect their intensity and direction. “We’re not discounting the possibility of seeing very strong tropical cyclones towards 2015’s end,” he said. He also said tropical cyclones during El Nino tend to recurve northwards instead of crossing the country. Pagasa expects the rainy season to last until September but near- to above-normal rainfall is likely in the next three months. “Rainfall amount will be likely less starting September due to El Nino,” he noted.