Like a flu every year

By Jude Josue Sabio .

IN the “2019 Influenza/Sari Surveillance Report 6” issued by the Epidemiology Bureau, Public Health Surveillance Division, Department of Health, the total number of influenza-like illness by morbidity week all over the Philippines from Jan. 1, 2019 to June 29, 2019, is 68,091. If we divide the total of 68,091 by six months, we arrive at a monthly average of 11,348.

Most of the influenza-like illness for the said period came from Caraga (15,825 or 23%), Region IV-A (9,124 or 13%) and Region VII (6,305 or 9%).

The statistics for the period from Jan. 1, 2019 to June 29, 2019, were compared to the five-year average of cases for the five years from 2014 to 2018. The comparison chart shows that the cases of influenza-like illness were higher for January to March 2019 than the average monthly rate for said months in the said 5-year period.

Based on media reports, if assumed to be correct, the number of Covid-19 cases is said to be more than 2,000 which is registered in March and the first half of April this year when the cases spiked, this number of covid-19 cases is very much lower than the monthly average of 11,348 of influenza-like illness.

Commenting about the flu cases in the US concerning Covid-19, Dr. Wittkowsky, who wrote a paper titled “How to fight Sars/Covid-19” mentioned in his recent video uploaded on Youtube, said: “Two percent would die—of all cases. Of all symptomatic cases. Two percent of all symptomatic cases would die, which is two percent of the 25000 a day, that is 500 people a day, and that will happen over four weeks, so that could be as high as 10000 people. Now, that compares to the normal number of cases of flu during the flu season and we have in the US about 35000 deaths every year during the flu season, so it would be part of the normal situation during the flu season.”  He added: Yes there is a statistic for flu, it’s currently at 10000 or 12000, so together with Corona, it is the same as the regular flu.” 

He further said: “… There are no indications this flu is fundamentally different from any other flu. We know what happened to China, South Korea, Europe. There are no indications that anything is different from regular flu, although maybe it’s a bit worse than other flu, a little bit.  What happens with normal respiratory disease is that flu ends during spring, and people spend more time outdoors because outdoors the viruses cannot easily spread. That is a form of containment—spending more time outdoors.” 

The relatively low infection rate of influenza-like illness in the Philippines can be attributed to its hot climate. The Covid-19 is no different.

Dr. John Nicholls, a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong who is studying the effects of temperature on Sars-Cov-2 (Covid-19), said the virus is sensitive to temperature, surviving and transmitting better in colder weather. That would give countries in the northern hemisphere like China, South Korea, the US, Spain, Italy, and France a respite from the virus in the coming summer months.

It is acknowledged by Dr. Wittkowski that said Covid-19 fatally infects the vulnerable and fragile people. But he said that people do not die of the virus; people die of pneumonia, which should be treated on time especially for the vulnerable people.

Answering the question if he is afraid of the Covid-19 virus, he said: “No. We don’t die of the virus. We die of pneumonia. So if we have a viral respiratory disease, once the body has created antibodies, the immune system has created antibodies, the immune system is killing all infected cells, which destroy much of the mucosa. Bacteria can settle on the destroyed mucosa and cause pneumonia. It is pneumonia that is killing people if it is not treated. I had a virus three weeks ago—maybe Covid, who knows? My physician gave me the antibiotics I should take if the disease gets better and then gets worse, because that its a sign of pneumonia and we have to treat pneumonia. Pneumonia is what is treated with antibiotics, not viruses. 

He quickly added: “The best thing is isolate if you are old and fragile, and if you get the disease see your doctor as soon as possible.” 

When asked if this is a pandemic, Dr. Wittkowsky said: “It’s a pandemic like it’s a pandemic every year.” 

The annual infection and death rates of influenza in the US are very high to be of pandemic proportions, it being a cold country in the northern hemisphere susceptible to the seasonal flu, but there have been no lockdowns there in the previous years. The statistics of influenza-like illness in the Philippines is so small, compared to that in the US, that it is ridiculous to treat it as of pandemic proportions. Never in previous years did our government resort to a lockdown of draconian proportions. The situation now is not fundamentally different from those in previous years.

If we treat the cases of influenza-like illness in the Philippines for the past five years to be of epidemic or pandemic proportions, why is it that the DOH did not impose a lockdown? Why did the DOH impose a lockdown for this influenza-like Covid-19 in early March when the statistical data shows that the incidence, at the time of the lockdown up to now, is way below the monthly average of the influenza-like illness within the relevant period?

Health Secretary Francisco Duque must have known the statistics and report of his own bureau. He must have also researched the data for influenza in the US. Against the backdrop of the report of his own department, the number of the covid flu cases is still within the normal trend that has been recorded for five years from 2014 to 2018, and more importantly for the period from January 1 to June 29, 2019. But Secretary Duque imposed a lockdown which cannot be justified by this data. The lockdown is for nothing, due to nothing but the flu.

To paraphrase Dr. Wittkowski, it is influenza like it is influenza every year.

(Jude Josue Sabio is a lawyer from Misamis Oriental.)