Sizing up Duterte’s grit (1)

Julkipli Wadi

THE ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, Netherlands on 12 July 2016 on the Philippines’ case against China is perceived to be a “milestone” for the Philippines.

Yet, it brought to a new time high the tension between the Philippines and China, as the latter refused to recognize the said Arbitral Tribunal’s decision. Ever since, China has refused to recognize arbitration as a way to settle the South China Sea dispute. It had long insisted bilateral talks with the Philippines.

With the Arbitral Tribunal debunking China’s nine-dash line claim that deeply hurt China, question is raised how best both countries could proceed without damaging their relations further testing thus Du30’s grit in foreign policy.

As China has remained firm and belligerent with its position and even strengthened its hold of South China Sea after the said ruling, the Duterte government has called for “restraint and sobriety,” “not to taunt or flaunt,” “soft-landing approach,” and “peaceful talks” with China.

The government proposed bilateral talks while planning to send former Philippine President Fidel Ramos as envoy to China. Question is raised on China’s objective in post-PCA’s ruling and whether pursuing bilateral talks with China is wholly advantageous to the Philippines without eroding its gain resulting from said ruling and without alienating her Western allies.

There is no doubt that the issue on South China Sea has posed the most difficult challenge to President Du30 with barely two weeks in office. Whereas China has been consistently firm with its “historical claim” of nine-dash line on South China Sea, the Philippines flip-flopped with the change of administration from Pnoy to Digong.

The Aquino government was against holding bilateral talks with China the fact that it filed the said case in The Hague three years ago. Back then, the Aquino Administration, like other past administrations, showed strong leanings to the United States and other Western allies relative to issue on South China Sea. China, then, did not budge.

With the change of administration and with the new president who claimed to be a socialist while showing high degree of affinity with China with his consistently anti-US position even while he was Mayor of Davao City, China continued not to budge putting practically the Du30 government on a bind.

In his phone conversation with US President Barrack Obama before Duterte’s inauguration, then Presumptive President Duterte was quoted to have told Obama: “when there is no wind that could move the sail, I am willing to go bilateral with China.”

To many people, the Arbitral Tribunal’s ruling on July 12 is supposedly the “favorable wind” – a milestone according to Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Perfecto Yasay – to move the sail for Philippine Ship to cross the rough ocean of South China Sea.

Yet, despite winning the case in the PCA, the Philippines could not enforce the said ruling. Neither could the UN and the international community.

International norm shows that peaceful mode of settlement like arbitration is devoid of automatic enforceability especially if one party refuses to participate in such mode and has within its authority – especially with such standing of a behemoth like China – the power to reject any ruling of an arbitration body like the PCA.

Even if the Philippines brings its case to the General Assembly and the Security Council, the prospect of gaining the ears of other countries is uncertain given China’s influence in the U.N. All these are reasons why the Du30 government called for “restraint and sobriety” when the Arbitral Tribunal’s decision came out.

As the Philippines proposes bilateral talks with China now, the latter becomes even more stringent in controlling the maritime areas that are supposedly within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

After the Arbitral Tribunal’s ruling, Filipino fishermen in Masinloc, Zambales and other adjacent areas in Luzon are continuously barred by Chinese Coast Guards in the Scarborough Shoal. Thus, many people are now questioning the value of supposed international decision by U.N. entities like the PCA favoring the Philippines when Pinoy fisher folks could not even fish in their traditional fishing area.

Meantime, the request of fishermen for Philippine Coast Guard to secure them remained unheeded by Philippine authorities as they were instructed to keep away from the Scarborough. The reason being is that, the Philippines would not want to raise the tension in the area any further, as if China had not been stoking fire these past several years let alone sensitive to simple prodding of Filipino diplomacy or meek request of reciprocity.

Ordinary folks, swayed by new Administration’s no nonsense war on drugs and criminality amid dramatic rise of arrests and killings of their fellow Filipinos who happened to be drug suspects, could not help but question why the highly regarded Du30’s grit falters when it comes to China including Chinese drug traffickers who are observably major ones responsible in the proliferation of illegal drugs in the country.

To say the least, it only shows the big difference between domestic and foreign policy despite having a president known for his unique style, grit, and courage. Yet, many Du30’s fans are looking for, at least, a modicum of consistency where grit is grit whoever the enemy or culprit is, whether big or small, fellow Filipinos or Chinese.

Perhaps, the value of delineating domestic and foreign policy is merely heuristic whose end is to facilitate understanding of State’s action. But foreign policy analysis is grossly limited unless the query is able to tap into more reliable source of information like history.

For, if the question borders on China’s grand conspiracy as answer to the query why China has the propensity to trick the Philippines over the issue in South China Sea while many of her nationals are flooding the whole country with shabu, there is a need to review even briefly the experience of then robust Sulu Sultanate in the 18th century in her dual fights against European colonial powers and China with their rivalry to control the natural resources (e.g., pearl, bird nest, tripang, shark fins) of the Sulu Archipelago and the strategic sea lanes of South China Sea, the Sulu Sea, and the Malacca Strait. (to be concluded)