Sliding to weak state

Bencyrus Ellorin

A 2008 study by the Washington-based think tank Brookings Institution assessed the Philippines to be “on the cusp of designation as a weak state.”

The study entitled Index of State Weakness on Developing Countries ranked the Philippines No. 58 among 141 countries, with the Somalia, Afghanistan and Democratic Republic of Congo in the top three and classified states as failed states. The study classified states as failed, critically weak, weak and states to watch.

The study indicated that while the Philippines “performs above average on political and social welfare components of statehood, but within the bottom quantile on security.”

Bottom quantile means that security-wise, the country’s situation is similar to those of failed and critically weak states.

When the study was done, there were prolonged fighting between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), especially in 2001, 2003 and 2008. A fragile ceasefire was broken when some units of the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces (Biaf), the armed wing of the MILF staged attacks in protest of the failed Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain. Abdullah Macapaar alias Kumander Bravo’s forces attacked Kauswagan town in Lanao del Norte while the late Umbra Kato led military strikes in Maguindanao. Kato later on broke away from the MILF and formed the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.

The study noted that the Philippine government “continues to confront an insurgency in Mindanao.” And concluded that the “weakness of the Philippine state and its disgruntled Muslim minority have this country an important theatre in the US-led war on terrorism.”

The study looked into four functions of the state as indicators, namely: political, economic, social welfare and security.

Fast forward to the present, it can be safely assumed that the Philippines continue to perform well in economic and social welfare, and yes, in politics.

The country did not score as high in the political indicator in the study because of a host of reasons. At that time, the country just had a regime change when popular protest and an impeachment hearing at the Senate pushed President Erap Estrada to resign in 2001. His constitutional predecessor who ran and won in the 2004 presidential election was hounded by election cheating controversy highlighted by wire-tapped phone conversation with a top Commission on Election official dubbed as the  “Hello Garci Scandal.” Throughout her term, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was hounded by impeachment complaints at the House of Representatives.

Political stability and economic growth were attained in the next administration. Former president Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino, while maligned by the present administration, presided over an economy that had sustained over five percent year-on-year economic growth rate, the economy getting high credit ratings from international financial institutions. Interest rates and the value of the peso were also stable.

In social welfare, it can also be assumed that the country further improved with its anti-poverty program dubbed Pantawid ng Pamilyang Pilipino (PPP) which was sustained and even expanded in the present administration.

This present administration can be credited with political stability owing to the huge support the electorate gave to President Rodrigo Duterte. In fact, the main opposition party, the Liberal Party was obliterated after the 2016 elections.

Economically, it would be too early to tell if this administration will surpass or sustain the economic growth in the last six or seven years. But there are some red flags like the ballooning budget deficit, increasing trade deficit despite solid export growth, and the peso now on its eight-year low. Gas prices have also gone up due to external and internal factors, among them the weak peso. While government economic managers remain bullish, this administration needs to work more to make the economy resilient from external market forces with solid domestic economic fundamentals.

Brookings did not yet make a follow through of its 2008 study, but with the parameters they have laid down, the Philippine state’s strength could be further pulled down by security. The Brookings study’s security parameters are (1) intensity of conflict; (2) political stability; (3) incidence of coups; (4) gross human rights abuses; and (5) territory affected by conflict.

The most alarming developments which could point to further downtrend in the security aspect would be the country’s less than successful war against terror. This serious problem is manifested by the ongoing Marawi siege staged by terrorists who have declared allegiance to the Islamic State which had wrecked terror in the Middle East and Europe, which is now in its 4th month.

The Marawi conflict has been considered as a manifestation of the IS brand of terrorism finding a new theatre in southeast Asia. Marawi City, the only Islamic majority city in the country, is both strategic and symbolic to the IS which wants to establish an Islamic caliphate.

It does not help that the present administration’s war on drugs have resulted in human rights violations, with no less than the President encouraging extra-judicial killings of suspected illegal drug users and pushers.

And not only that, the President has been consistently averse to democratic institutions needed for check and balance. His attacks on due process and the Constitution’s Bill of Rights is alarming and the judiciary is alarming. His actions are early warnings of a regime that wants to concentrate powers to the government’s primus inter-pares.

The country’s slide to weak state is not good. The weaker a state becomes, the lesser is the capacity of government fulfill its political, economic, social welfare and security functions.

The study further found stronger relationship between poverty and overall weakness. Among its conclusion was that “a substantial majority of the world’s failed and critically weak states are also the world’s poorest.”

While the president continues to enjoy an enormously high political capital and his supporters cheering on him at every turn, certain realities are not as astonishing. And when the slide is unhampered, the joke will indubitably be on the people. For this, we pray: Please Lord, no!