Eyes on the ball!

Bencyrus Ellorin .

ALL-TIME high inflation; all time weak peso; rice at P70 a kilo; diesel at P55; and gasoline at P60+? I certainly hope not.

But these are portent of things to come. From all standards, our economic vital signs indicate illness, and if not remedied properly could result in convulsion.

It’s funny how some copy-paste a year-on-year inflation table from Wikipedia, and conclude that inflation is no big deal. What can be more wrong than that?

An economist, academic and business executive friend, Julian Conception, who is from Davao wrote on his Facebook wall:

“Little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

“In my newsfeed, someone posted that ‘pump-priming the economy inevitably leads to inflation. Inflation is the price to pay for better roads and higher standard of living.’

“This simplistic and sweeping statement is just telling one side of the story. Yes, a certain rate of inflation is necessary but uncontrolled inflation will lead to widespread poverty and hunger. That’s why we have the government’s Monetary Board (Central Bank) and the Neda which are tasked to balance economic growth vs inflation. The key concept to understand is balanced economic growth.

“The government’s target inflation rate is between 2-4% inflation rate this year (2018), Inquirer, July 25. However, by mid-August 2018 it has shoot-up to 6.4%.

“Progressive Asean countries like Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam have average inflation rates of between 2.7 – 4.2% from 2013 – 2017 which is ideal considering their GDP rates of between 4-6%.

“This person who posted that ‘Mga kabayan, tiis tiis lang. Just wait until we start reaping the benefits of Build Build Build.:)’ who claims to be an ‘economics’ graduate should review (retake) his Econ 101. If I was his professor, I would feel bad because he did not understand the course.”

During the presidential debates, then candidate Rodrigo Duterte did not anymore present his economic platform, simply saying, he’d just copy the other candidate’s economic platforms.

The story of inflation in at least the three administrations is that it rose up during the time Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, went down during PNoy’s time, and now, it is back up.

It can be remembered that in 2007-2008, when prices of rice skyrocketed, the inflation was on all-time high. I remember then that the administration was hounded by smuggling scandals and other scandals that characterized that administration.

If indeed he’d just copy economic policies, it is either he is a bad copycat or had copied the wrong model.

***

Last week, the country was in a maelstrom when an outspoken opposition senator got really deep into the skin of the president, he was ordered arrested for fundamental defects in his amnesty. It was said he did not apply for such and did not own up to his political crimes. It turned out he did apply and owned up to his mistakes.

What is chilling then was the order of the President to arrest Sen. Sonny Trillanes. The president even with his vast powers does not have the power to order the arrest of anyone. That power is reserved to the courts. The only exception is when the Bureau of Immigration, an office under the president, arrests an illegal alien. But a senator of the republic can never be an alien, right?

The president and his men are brilliant and intelligent, they are well-schooled, except perhaps for a handful.

From the onset, they must have known that they have a weak case against Trillanes. If they are dead serious in arresting him, they can surely find a judge who would issue a warrant of arrest.

They were even able to ask the Supreme Court to look away from the Constitution and removed a sitting Chief Justice through the animal called quo warranto. So finding a judge who would find probable cause should have been a walk in the park.

Why they did or what they have done is a question with a ready answer. They needed a distraction.

While they were still figuring out how to explain the high rice prices, the 6.4-inflation, runaway oil price hikes, and everything getting expensive, the people have to be busy debating on politics — their favorite staple.

Now, they found a band aid; flood Metro Manila with rice kasi maingay, Congressman Joey Salceda, an economist, was quoted as telling the media. He also said the high inflation was self-inflicted, a result of government doing so little or nothing to manage it.

Yes, rice prices in Metro Manila have stabilized. What about us: on a state-sponsored diet regimen?

My fear is that things could be badder before it becomes better.

Weak leaders tend to abuse the state’s coercive powers. It is a survival instinct, especially, of despots.

The victims are the poor who have little or no defenses against draconian state measures. The general profile of anti-drug casualties is instructive.

Let me tell you a story:

Once upon a time, there was an emperor that did not have control over his subalterns who were said to be in smuggling, infra kickbacks, and, yes, drugs and all sorts of rent seeking.

This ring of shady sub alterns cultivated the cult following for the emperor. And when s**t hit the fan, the emperor came out, said something really nasty, like a rape joke, and did a very bad but calculated order to arrest an outspoken critic to deflect attention to himself.

And then the cult bowed and defended the emperor no matter what, denying the eroded capacity of their money and their disappearing democratic space. Meanwhile, the subalterns laughed their way to the banks while the emperor fiddled with his new robe.

There is no happily ever after. This is not a fairy tale. This is reality.

***

I’m sharing my Facebook post which had hundreds of likes and shares. I’m no “socmed” rockstar but the clicks for the satire post made me smile and smirk. While many got the point, others had their IQ fall and roll violently off the floor.

“Breaking News:

“Thousands of Filipinos are lining up at the national statistics office to secure birth and other certificates, after a reported crackdown by government. Those found to have no birth certificate are deemed unborn, ab initio.

“Also those whose marriage contracts are not found in the records are automatically declared single. #witchhunting”