Code red for Earth

JUNE 21 is the longest day. People were expecting the sun to shine for over 12 hours in countries around the equator.

It rained for most of the day ― at least from where I am. Climate change? Hahaha. Today could simply be a rainy day.

I did my afternoon walk under the rain ― slight drizzle actually ― to buy food. I passed by a gas station, and signs there are in the 80s per liter. Needless to say, that provided more motivation for me to walk.

I was told vehicular traffic these days is not as heavy as say three or four months ago. It is a no-brainer, who would want to go on non-essential trips on gas-fed vehicles. This means less carbon emission.

I would not be saying high gas prices are good. What I would be saying is that it is time for our dependence on gasoline, diesel, and coal ― fossil fuels END NOW.

The 2022 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released last April has declared among others CODE RED for humanity.

“The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk.”

The Paris Agreement on Climate made a radical, but extremely necessary Carbon emission reduction target of 45% compared to 2010 emission levels by 2030 and net-zero by 2050. This is necessary to put a cap on a global temperature increase at two degrees Celsius. preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2040.

The planet is close to reaching the tipping point where the environmental damage becomes irreversible, said the recent IPCC report. Impacts would be more frequent and more severe extreme weather events. sea-level rise, dying of forests, and so on and so forth.

Signatories of the Paris Deal were required to submit their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to carbon emission. In 2021, the Philippines set its NDC to a 75% reduction by 2030. This is ambitious, and looks good on paper but is doable if the government tackles the bull by the horn, so to speak.

In the power sector, one of the biggest contributors to carbon emission, the target is to transition dependence to renewable energy from fossil-fed power plants to 35% by 2030 and 55% by 2040. For Mindanao, the target is 50% renewable energy dependence by 2030. Currently, the fossil to renewable energy ratio is 70:30.

In numbers, what is 50% renewable energy dependence in 2030 for Mindanao? That would be around 4,000 megawatts of installed capacity for renewables – hydro, solar, biomass, wind, tidal/ocean, and geothermal. Mindanao by 2030.

Now, the installed capacity for Mindanao is around 4,500 megawatts. By 2030, it is estimated to be at 8,000 megawatts.

Of the current installed capacity, around 32% is renewable, with hydro taking 26%, with geothermal, solar, and biomass accounting for the rest. Of the fossil-based, coal is 51% with 2,260 megawatts capacity. Coal dependence of Mindanao jumped more than sevenfold since the first coal plant ― The Steag Coal-fired power plant in Villanueva, Misamis Oriental went online in 2006.

Where would the 3,500 or so megawatts of needed renewable energy be sourced in order to meet the target in 2030? On top of the list would be the rehabilitation of the Agus-Pulangi Hydropower complex in the Lanao provinces and Bukidnon. With an installed capacity of 1,001 megawatts, the Agus-Pulangi complex is now operating at 60%. Rehabilitation that is now being pushed with funding from the World Bank would generate around 300 megawatts more from Mindanao’s hydro backbone.

Thus, there is a need to construct more renewable energy baseload power plants. There are a few stalled projects which could easily add 500 megawatts more of clean energy like the Pulangi 5 project in southern Bukidnon and South Cotabato and the Bulanog hydro project in Bukidnon and Cagayan de Oro.

Aside from these big hydro projects whose social and environmental costs do not come cheap, there has to be a drive for smaller hydros. Another 300 megawatts of mini and micro hydros for Mindanao is possible in the short term. I was told, that close to a hundred mini-hydros projects are lining up to get Renewable Energy Supply Contracts (RESC) from the DOE. While these hydropower resources are abundant, tedious permitting processes pushed the approval cycle from five to seven years.

Rooftop solar photovoltaic (solar PVs) systems have also shown promise. In 2004, the 1-megawatt Indahag solar plant of Cepalco was hailed
as the biggest solar farm connected to the grid in Southeast Asia. When power shortage hit Mindanao again in 2010-2011, Cepalco drew up plants to establish more solar farms ― at least a hundred megawatts then. The company was ready, save for the final schedule of feed-in tariff rates for renewable energy as provided by the Renewable Energy Law. When the feed-in tariff rates came, Cepalco shelved the plans in 2014, claiming the feed-in tariff for solar energy at around P9 per kilowatt-hour was too low to make their project economically and financially feasible. They were looking at something like P14.

There is a silver lining though. 18 years after the Indahag on-grid solar farm, the use of solar power in Cagayan de Oro has actually increased almost fourfold. A homegrown solar power provider like Greenergy Solar is now providing around 3.6 megawatts of solar power installed on rooftops. A tertiary hospital in CDO, for example, has utilized its rooftop for solar power and saves around P300,000 a month in power bills.

There is also a need to relax procurement procedures like the Competitive Selection Process for electric utilities/ power cooperatives transitioning to renewable energy sources. The Renewable Energy Law required power utilities to buy at least 1% year-on-year of their power from renewable energy generators from 2020 to 2030 through what is called Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). Compliance to RPS, which should be at least 3% this year is nil. The National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) actually wants to raise the RPS to 2.5%/ year, supposedly starting this year.

Government agencies are required to transition to efficient and clean power sources. You can just imagine the huge carbon savings and electricity bill cuts if all government buildings are installed with solar PVs.

Energy transition to clean, efficient, and sustainable energy sources looks difficult. Solutions are available. We do not have much choice. Fossil fuel must go if we want our children and grandchildren to live on a planet similarly habitable to what we have now.