The threat of war is real

Erick San Juan

CHINA has, for the first time, extracted gas from an ice-like substance under the South China Sea considered key to future global energy supply.

Chinese authorities have described the success as a major breakthrough.

Methane hydrates, also called “flammable ice,” hold vast reserves of natural gas.

Many countries, including the US and Japan, are working on how to tap those reserves, but mining and extracting are extremely difficult.

“The element, a kind of natural gas hydrate, was discovered in the area in 2007, but this is the first time the country is able to successfully extract combustible ice from the seabed, in a single, continuous operation on a floating production platform in the Shenhu area of the South China Sea, about 300 km southeast of Hong Kong,” Xinhua reports.

Methane hydrate global sources are estimated to exceed the combined energy content of all other fossil fuels.

Estimates of the South China Sea’s methane hydrate potential now range as high as 150 billion cubic meters of natural gas equivalent, sufficient to satisfy China’s entire equivalent oil consumption for 50 years.

The commercial production of methane hydrate would reduce China’s dependence on energy imports, which accounts for nearly 60 percent of its crude oil needs, making it the world’s No. 2 importer by volume, after the US.

Methane hydrate will also aid China’s efforts to shift to natural gas from coal, which accounts for nearly 70 percent of its primary-energy consumption, which has caused harmful pollution to China’s cities.

China’s discovery of methane hydrates off the coasts of Vietnam and the Philippines is what has prompted China to aggressively pursue the occupation of Philippine and Vietnamese shoals and their conversion to artificial islands in order to safely conduct its exploration and production of methane hydrate.

This explains China’s placement of an oil rig platform off the coast of Vietnam which triggered international showdowns with Vietnam.

The Recto Bank (Reed Bank) area, located only 50 miles west of the Philippine island of Palawan, is considered a methane hydrate honey pot. The Philippines estimates that the Sampaguita Field within Recto Bank may also hold large deposits of natural gas equivalents in the form of methane hydrates. (Source: Rodel Rodis, “Why China will declare war if PH drills for oil”)

Now that the question was answered on the real intention of China in the disputed area in the South China Sea especially on our territories, there is no doubt that what China’s soft power approach now with our President is part and parcel of China’s “looting” of our mineral resources.

The threat of war is real because China has already succeeded in extracting methane hydrates (flammable ice) in the SCS and if we will conduct our own oil exploration and extraction, we will disrupt their flammable ice operation in the process.

With our domestic problems on terrorism and the war on drugs, China easily extended help with these two problems. We all know that President Duterte has somewhat given up on our claim in the disputed areas in the SCS by saying that there is no point of going to war if we are establishing friendship with China. In effect we are allowing the extraction of this mineral by China without doing anything.  And not even a joint project? Where is the so-called bilateral talks towards bilateral agreement to peaceful resolution of the territorial dispute? Are we taken for a ride here with our full consent? Just asking.

President Duterte should be very careful with his discreet plan of action because so many international think tanks are watching and studying his “chess game.” One example is the perception that a China-inspired revolutionary government was sabotaged by international terrorist organization Isis.

According to Solicitor General Jose Calida, Duterte knew about the plan of the Maute Group to attack Marawi. It jibes with my information of a bigger plan of terrorism which could affect the nation.

Even before Duterte left for his China trip, I alerted him through Secretary Bong Go, NSA Secretary Jun Esperon and other cabinet secretary friends to make sure that my assessment will reach him. I suggested to all of them to reactivate the “Situation Room” so PRD can preempt any possible threat and mishief.

This plan had been successful during the time of former President Fidel Ramos because of former NSA Joe Almonte’s appreciation of strategic intelligence.

Before Duterte left for Russia, he only secured Davao City by putting an additional military contingent there. He even brought his top level officials to Moscow and let Budget Secretary Ben Diokno be his caretaker head.

When the Maute siege started, Duterte knew that the Maute Group’s plan was real and immediately returned to Davao. Despite his statement of giving timetable to finish off the Maute Group, it all failed due to the support of the Isis to the Maute Group.

It’s a good thing that Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana sought the assistance of the US forces in fighting the real enemy, the Isis. Despite the noise of the pro-Beijing left, now is the ripe time that the US can prove them wrong by finishing off the Isis terror group before a spillover can reach Metro Manila which could fully destroy Duterte’s sdministration.

There are so many Filipino experts who can be of help. We have to swallow our pride once and for all and tap them for our nation’s sake.

This is a matter of sovereignty. We are in a dire strait and we need an immediate solution to this problem. Many soldiers and people died. We have to remind the President that his nationalism is now being tested. We don’t even have to give up our mineral resources to anyone. It’s for our country’s future generations. There are other ways than going to war to assert our rights to our resources, there is still time to find solutions to such predicaments.

As Filipinos, this is the right time to act and unite. Let us help our President, our nation. God bless our country.