Pagasa sees as much as 9 cyclones developing

THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) yesterday warned of five to nine tropical cyclones that may develop and enter Philippine territory between this month and September this year.

Pagasa forecast that the prevailing strong El Nino phenomenon is already in its weakening stage and expected to move into neutral condition by mid-2016.

“El Nino continues to weaken,” Pagasa’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section officer in charge Anthony Lucero said.

He said latest available data indicate possible transition from El Nino to neutral conditions by the May-June-July 2016 period with the country’s rainy season commencing around late May to early June.

According to Pagasa, weather systems that may affect the Philippines this April are tropical cyclones, local thunderstorms, easterly wave, inter-tropical convergence zone, low-pressure areas, and ridge of high-pressure area.

Pagasa also said transition to the rain-driving southwest monsoon may occur this month.

Pagasa forecast “zero to one” tropical cyclone each in April, May and June this year.

It also forecast one to three tropical cyclones for July, and two to four tropical cyclones for August and September.

Lucero noted any of such forecast tropical cyclone can be a strong one.

“Strong tropical cyclone happen yearly with or without El Nino–the threat of these occurring is always present,” he said.

Despite the expected tropical cyclones, Lucero continued cautioning about above-average temperature amid El Nino.

“Beware of heat stress and heat stroke as we expect warmer days ahead,” he said.

He warned that maximum temperature in the country could soar to 39.6 C and 42.2 C.

Lucero further said 32 provinces comprising some 40 percent of the Philippines would likely be under drought by April 2016’s end.