Zero death and flood science

Bencyrus Ellorin

FLOODS are natural occurrences. Like other calamities, it is a natural hazard,  beyond human control which is also referred in legal contracts as “act of God.” Human activities however either aggravate or mitigate the impact of natural calamities. The Dec. 22 severe tropical storm Vinta-induced flood points to certain human activities like logging, mining, urban planning and climate change as the culprit.

Disaster impact mitigation which is the primary objective of disaster risk reduction refers to activities that reduces disaster impact. When disaster strikes, the hierarchy of impact mitigation follows what our laws like the Bill of Rights in the Constitution which starts with the primacy of saving life, property and liberty. And in that order.

When Code Red is declared, government is empowered to implement forced evacuation which affects the right to liberty. But in doing so, government is exercising the protection of the highest right — the right to life. In disaster response, the priority is to save life first before saving property.

In this regard, the city government of Cagayan de Oro and the rescue groups came up with high marks with the zero death in the Vinta floods.

As observed, despite having the highest hazard exposure along the path of Vinta, Cagayan de Oro was not highlighted prominently in the news which focused on the body count. I say highest exposure as the city has the highest population density along the path of Vinta.

In disaster risk reduction planning, impact is measured by the presence of natural risks like low-lying areas along bodies of water have higher flooding risk compared to higher elevated planes. When communities are in a flood high risk area, people and their properties are exposed to greater hazards.

Now the hard question: Have we not learned the lessons of Sendong?

My answer is yes, and that is substantiated by the zero death in the Vinta floods. Not that the flood was not deadly, it left a swat of death, with reports ranging from 160 – 200 deaths and scores still missing. But these are all outside the city. The difference? We now have a functioning disaster risk reduction system.

There are still many things that need to be worked on. Construction of flood control infrastructure takes time not just to build but to raise funds also. And these big infrastructure projects are administered by the national government. The P8-billion, 12-kilometer mega dike is still unfinished. There are still alignment issues that explains the gaps that serve as “open” floodgates as water from Mt. Kitanglad, Mt. Kalatungan and the plateaus of Bukidnon rampage down northern Mindanao’s metropolis.

Also, the improvement and building of new drainage infrastructure in the city are still underway. In both the river flood control and drainage projects, funds from the national government come in trickles as continuing annual funds. Maybe these will be completed in three to five years.

There were efforts to address flood control issues up the 135,000-hectare Cagayan de Oro watershed. Around 80 percent of this is in Bukidnon but not much has been made about this. The project Payment for Environmental Services which sought to reforest the CDO watershed has not really taken off with local governments not acting on it.

In Cagayan de Oro, the City Local Environment and Natural Resources Office has been relentless in stopping illegal logging in the Cagayan de Oro watershed that is within the city’s jurisdiction, in the Monigue subwatershed. Reforestation through the National Greening Program has also been underway.

In February last year, we made an aerial surveillance in the city’s watershed and we found fresh logging scars especially in the Mt. Kalatungan areas, in the Bulanog subwatershed in the mountains of Miarayon, Talakag, Bukidnon. Banana plantations have also made fresh incursions in the natural forest lines.

Then the social infrastructure. Relocation also takes time. Yes, there is no doubt people in the no-build zones need to be relocated. Of the over 15,000 displaced by Sendong, around 3,000 need to be relocated — meaning, 80 percent have been relocated in six years. The administration of Mayor Oscar Moreno has created the City Housing and Urban Development Department (Chudd) last year to rationalize and fasttrack the city’s housing and settlement program. And so far, they have done their best, I should say. The mayor in the inaugural of his second term said he would address the housing and settlement shortage in his second term. At the rate things are going, the balance of 20 percent should be doable before 2019.

If civil infrastructure needs around 10 years to complete, natural methods may take more time as trees grow slower. Social reconstruction like housing and settlement also need more time.

The dire problem we are facing is frequency. The Sendong flood was considered a 100-year cycle flood as it was comparable to the flood that hit the city in 1916. It was followed by another flood of similar magnitude in 2012 when super typhoon Pablo whizzed past the city. And then Vinta on Dec. 22, 2017.  That is three 100-year cycle floods in six years.

Power outages during floods are mostly precautionary measures.

We should not be so harsh to ourselves. Except for the inconveniences, we have done a lot.

In developed New Orleans of the US, it took them 10 years to conclude they have been rehabilitated after they were flattened by hurricane Katrina. At our rate of recovery after Sendong, aggravated by Pablo and Vinta, we should be doing well.

Finally, “One Sendong is Enough” has not been swept by the floodwaters.

Three 100-year cycle floods in six years is very harsh. In a game of probability, it is no-brainer, we are not getting any upperhand.

But we are a resilient people, Cagayanons should never doubt that.

PS.

Among the weakest in terms of resiliency is our water system. It is not easy to be waterless for days and face the new year with rationed water. People in the eastern part of the city are cursing heavens for this. We in the western part have become numb. Before Vinta, we were already surviving on rationed water and low-pressure water supply.