By Nitz Arancon
SEVEN to 12 tropical cyclones are expected to hit the country between now and October, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has warned.
Joseph Basconcillo, a Pagasa climatologist, said the forecast is that a tropical cyclone would hit the country before the month ends, and another one could develop and enter Philippine territory next month.
He said Pagasa also expects one to three tropical cyclones in July, two to four in August, two to four in September, and another two to four in October.
He said most of the tropical cyclones would be spawned by La Niña.
Basconcillo revealed this during a USAID-sponsored forum on the El Niño and La Niña at the Cagayan de Oro City Water District (COWD) on Friday.
He said that while most tropical cyclones affected Luzon and Visayas from 1948 to 2015, the weather bureau has not ruled out the possibility that the storms would hit and cross Mindanao.
Basconcillo meanwhile said that the period of the scorching El Niño phenomenon would be over this month.
The country, he said, would experience “neutral conditions” between June and July–meaning, the effects of La Niña would not be felt for about two months.
But by late July and August, the La Niña would quickly build up and its effects would be felt starting in October as the waters of the Pacific Ocean become colder.
Basconcillo said the country can expect excessive rains from July to December. (nitz arancon)
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