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By Dr. Celia Lamkin

IN the past, the South China Sea situation seemed to be “quiet”, but in fact, there were many underground waves because there were many hot spots in the world, so the public paid little attention to the situation of the South China Sea compared to other areas around the globe.

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The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a profound impact on Southeast Asian countries, especially those directly involved in the South China Sea dispute. These countries fear that the conflict in Eastern Europe will spread to Southeast Asia. They are skeptical and have fear of the possibility of having a similar conflict occurring in the South China Sea region.

In addition, the relationship between the world’s two largest powers, the US and China, is very tense, especially after the recent hot-air balloon event. Both are also deploying large numbers of forces in the South China Sea, leading to the threat of war looming in the Taiwan Strait.

All of those issues affect the situation in the South China Sea, and the year 2023 has seen the situation in the South China Sea heating up day by day.

As early as January of this year, the Indonesian government approved natural gas exploration from the Tuna Block, part of the world’s largest untapped natural gas field.[1] The Indonesian side said that the Tuna gas field is completely located in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of this country.

However, China insists that this Tuna Block gas field is within the so-called infamous “nine-dash line” that China has put forward to claim its sovereignty. Beijing sent a protest note to the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and deployed a show of force in the field by sending civilian ships and the coast guard to the exploration area with the aim of threatening the target. The Indonesian Navy responded by dispatching several ships to these waters.[2]

Despite much criticism from the international community because this “nine-dash line” has no legal basis, and violates international law and UNCLOS 1982, and moreover, the Arbitral Tribunal in the case of the Philippines against China issued an Award on July 12, 2016, thereby rejecting the so-called “historic rights” to this “nine-dash line”, China has not stopped with the ambition to “take over the South China Sea.”

China has deployed similar intimidation and gray zone tactics with other Southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea region. China has continuously harassed Malaysia in the Kawasari mine area, in Sarawak state.[3]

Ray Powell, a retired Colonel of the US Air Force, and a researcher specializing in monitoring the activities of Chinese ships wrote on Twitter that from June 21, 2023, China’s Haiyan Dizhi Ba Hao probe and its escort Coast Guard 5202 had advanced into Luconia Shoal located within Malaysia’s EEZ.[4]

Previously, the survey ship Xiang Yang Hong 10 and a flotilla of escort ships violated Vietnam’s EEZ for 28 days, prompting the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson to protest.[5]

In April 2023, the tensions between the Philippines and China near Ayungin Shoal, or Second Thomas Shoal continued.[6]

In September and October 2022, China sent a support fleet and a militia ship to prevent oil and gas exploration in this area. Previously, in June 2022, ships of the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia prevented the Philippine military from approaching the outpost, BRP Sierra Madre, at Second Thomas Shoal.[7]

On February 6, 2023, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported that a Chinese coast guard ship shone a laser at a Philippine ship in the Second Thomas Shoal area, temporarily blinding Filipino sailors on board.[8]

On February 14, 2023, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. summoned Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian to express “deep concern” about the event.[9] The Philippine President’s spokesman also stated that President Marcos Jr. expressed opposition to Ambassador Huang Xilian regarding “over the increasing frequency and intensity of actions by China against the Philippine Coast Guard and our Filipino fishermen ..”[10]

US State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed that the US sided with the Philippines in this case. Ned Price said: “The PRC’s conduct was provocative and unsafe, resulting in the temporary blindness of the crew members of the BRP Malapascua and interfering with the Philippines’ lawful operations in and around Second Thomas Shoal. More broadly, the PRC’s dangerous operational behavior directly threatens regional peace and stability, infringes upon freedom of navigation in the South China Sea as guaranteed under international law, and undermines the rules-based international order.”[11]

In 2022 alone, the Philippines filed nearly 200 notes protesting China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.

China recently set up the above supermarkets located at military bases on Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef, which are three features in the Spratly Islands that have been illegally occupied by China.[12]

According to CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, a Washington-based think tank, China has reclaimed seven artificial islands in the South China Sea, creating more than 3,200 hectares of new land since 2013.[13] Beijing has said it has stopped the reclamation of land in the disputed waters, but it is reported that China continues to fortify the islands with advanced military bases as well as missile systems, radars, roads, ice, and jet fighters. Some observers see China’s fortification of those features as an attempt by China to create an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” for its air and naval forces in the South China Sea. US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John C. Aquilino said in March 2022 that three of China’s artificial islands – Mischief Reef, Subi Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef – appear to be fully militarized and equipped with missile systems as well as fighter aircraft.[14] In addition, in December 2022, Bloomberg reported that China is building artificial islands on the features of Eldad Reef, Lankiam Cay, Whitsun Reef, and Sandy Cay.[15]

It is because of such aggressive actions and threats of force that people in Southeast Asia are disgruntled and have a bad attitude toward China.

According to the survey report on the situation of Southeast Asia in 2023 that was recently published by the ASEAN Research Center of the Yusof Ishak Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore (ISEAS), when assessing the views of Southeast Asian leaders on a range of regional policy issues, only 26.8% of respondents trust China to “do the right thing.” Among the respondents who do not trust China, half of them believe that China has used its economic and military power “to threaten the interests and sovereignty of my country”.[16]

The recent completion of the EEZ delimitation agreement between Vietnam and Indonesia[17] has shown that the South China Sea dispute can completely be resolved by peaceful means if the disputing parties seriously comply with international law and UNCLOS.

In the current complicated context of the South China Sea, fully respecting and complying with UNCLOS plays an even more important role in maintaining peace, stability, security, safety, and freedom of navigation in the region. It is important that all countries respect the principle of rule of law in the seas and oceans, respect diplomatic and legal processes as well as ongoing negotiations, and avoid violent actions, and attitude to undermine and reduce the role of UNCLOS.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which is considered the constitution of the oceans, is quite clear about almost everything related to the sea. Coastal states have a territorial sea extending 12 nautical miles off their coasts. So are the islands. Countries also have resource zones spanning at least 200 nautical miles, dedicated solely to catching, exploiting, and harvesting deep-sea resources.

The main problem is that China, despite being a party to UNCLOS, disregards these provisions.

China exercises regional “rising power” over marine resources by preventing Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines from developing their oil and gas fields unless they accept Beijing’s terms. China’s aggressive actions in the sea have opened the door for other countries to flout the rule of law, leading to a world in which international law has little to do with the sea. China backs its maritime claims with naval fleets, coast guard, and maritime militia.

With such aggressive actions, violating international law, most ASEAN people doubt China’s goodwill in negotiating the Code of Conduct (COC). Can a great power like China say one thing and do another like that is a reliable partner to sign a code of conduct in the South China Sea?

About the author: Dr. Celia Lamkin is the founder and global chairperson of the National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea ( NYMWPS), a peaceful, non-partisan, and transglobal organization that advocates for the preservation of the Philippines’ sovereignty and territorial integrity.


[1] https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/indonesia-development-tuna-field/
[2] https://www.upstreamonline.com/politics/chinese-vessel-under-observation-near-harbour-energy-s-tuna-block-offshore-indonesia/2-1-1388794
[3] https://amti.csis.org/perilous-prospects-tensions-flare-at-malaysian-vietnamese-oil-and-gas-fields/
[4] https://twitter.com/GordianKnotRay/status/1671719260601630720?s=20
[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-ships-leave-vietnam-waters-after-us-china-talks-2023-06-06/
[6] https://apnews.com/article/philippines-dispute-south-china-sea-patrol-27ee9778f7302938c5090644e3d153c2
[7] https://www.newsweek.com/china-philippines-us-treaty-ally-south-china-sea-supply-second-thomas-shoal-1722035
[8] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/13/asia/philippines-china-coast-guard-laser-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
[9] https://www.rappler.com/nation/marcos-jr-summons-china-ambassador-actions-west-philippine-sea-february-14-2023/
[10] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-files-protest-china-over-use-laser-aggressive-activities-by-vessels-2023-02-14/
[11] https://www.state.gov/u-s-support-for-the-philippines-in-the-south-china-sea-3/
[12] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3209869/south-china-sea-disputed-spratly-islands-now-home-supermarkets-pla-soldiers#
[13] https://amti.csis.org/island-tracker/china/
[14] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/21/china-has-fully-militarized-three-islands-in-south-china-sea-us-admiral-says
[15] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/china-accused-of-building-on-unoccupied-reefs-in-south-china-sea#xj4y7vzkg
[16] https://www.iseas.edu.sg/articles-commentaries/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2023-survey-report-2/
[17] https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/indonesian/vietnam-indonesia-sez-12222022043301.html

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